Is the Legal Gun Market Fueling the illegal gun market? Samatha Lee says Yes, but Research is not really that conclusive.

''Both the Australian Institute of Criminology and the Australian Crime Commission have stated that there is very little evidence to prove that guns are coming in illegally across the border,'' Ms Lee said. ''The legal gun market is fuelling the illegal gun market.''

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/suburban-shootings-tied-to-rise-in-handgun-thefts-20130727-2qr8k.html


REALLY? is that what the Australian Institute of Criminology said?:

As usual dig a little and the Absolute Statements of some are based on nuanced conclusions and statements by the actually researchers.

First - Australian Crime Commission rely heavily on the Instituted of Criminology's research and reading the ACC papers they all point back to AIC so its not two independent sources agreeing on a fact, its one report being commented on by two people.


Here is what I can FIND from the Australian Institute of Criminology:

Sources and conduits

Illegal importation, theft, illicit manufacture (albeit small), the activities of some corrupt dealers, and legacy legislative and procedural loopholes all represent recognised methods by which firearms, firearm parts and ammunition have been or currently are trafficked into or within Australia (ACC 2011, 2009, 2008; Kerlatec 2007; Mouzos 1999; Qld CMC 2004).

Illegal Importation

"In the same period (2010-2011), ACBPS recorded the detection of 5,922 undeclared firearms/airguns, parts and accessories,"

"The servicing of the current illicit market through illegal imports is not an unproven channel but may not be as important a trafficking route as some commentators expect or assert (eg see ABC 2011) and despite more recent high-profile cases (eg see AAP & Davies 2012). This may be because the process of illegal importation is possibly perceived as a less reliable option for firearm acquisition due to increased surveillance from the ACBPS, in combination with police agencies, and thus a greater chance of detection (Project stakeholders personal communication 28 November 2011; 7 December 2011)."

THEFT

Firearms from just 12–14 percent of reported theft incidents between 2004–05 and 2008–09 were recovered by police in the 12 months following the report of the theft (Borzycki & Mouzos 2007; Bricknell 2011, 2009, 2008a; Bricknell & Mouzos 2007), indicating a sizeable, annual contribution of stolen firearms to the illicit market.

I have commented on that in another note that adding 0.5% to the Stock of existing Grey/Illegal Firearms is hardly fueling a stock pile.

SO the RESEARCH says

 - Illegal Imports are a source, but might not be as large as some assert.
 - Police failure to recover stolen guns is suggests that stolen guns are a "sizable" contribution.

We know 1,000 guns a year stolen and not recovered.
We know that the Police/Customs have uncovered criminals engaged in illegal importation of hand guns
We know that the Police have uncovered illicit firearms manufactures supplying criminal gangs.

We don't know how many guns are imported illegally (as parts/in full)
We don't know what the stock pile of illegal guns is (but the only published guess is 260,000+)

The researchers think stolen guns represent a sizable contribution to the stock pile of illegal guns.
The researchers don't quantify what the they mean by "sizable". (Sizable means Fairly Large)
The researchers did chose "sizable" when terms like  'most', 'majority', 'predominant','principal' might have been used if they thought them appropriate.
The researchers did NOT say that their was "very little evidence" that guns were coming in illegally.
In fact the researchers list all the reports of  illegal imports that appeared in the media.
They did not say "little evidence" they said, they thought the role of illegal imports might not be as great as people believed base on media reports.




REF: AIC Report
http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/current%20series/rpp/100-120/rpp116/07_characteristics.html

Why are we beating up LAFO about theft of 1000 guns a year when there are 260, 000 Illegal Firearms in Circulation & Police recover 14% of Stolen Guns?

Aust Institute of Criminology says that of the 1500 firearms a year stolen the police recover around 14%.

Lets assume that the 14% recovered is only from the 1200 or so Long Arms stolen and that they never recover any of the pistols.

That means each year 1100 long arms are added to the 250,000 illegal long arms guns the Aust Crime Commission Says are already out there. That is less than 0.5% of the existing stock pile.

In the case of hand guns the 90 a year that is being added to the Crime Commissions 10,000 estimate represents 1% of the existing stock pile.

I dont know about you, but when I see a 0.5% increase & 1% increase in anything, I do not think of adjectives like fueling the market.

If this is the major source of guns into the illegal market, the market must be pretty small or a very mature market in economic/business terms.

If the Institute of Criminology figure of only 3% (47) of stolen firearms end up being used in a crime.

It is no wonder that the boys have turned to Aust Post and Importing of parts to make guns (also noted by Institutes as a source of illegal guns).

I know the cry "But one gun in the hand of a criminal is one too many" will go up.

I agree that a gun in the hands of a criminal is a gun in the wrong hands.

If we were serious about removing guns from the hands criminal, shouldn't we be trying to locate the 260,000 guns the Crime Commission believes are out there already?

Shouldn"t we be putting the acid on the police to find out WHY they only recover 14% of the guns stolen each year?

There are only 600 or so thefts per year.
That means they solve 84 of 600 Thefts involving theft of a firearm.

But instead of asking
-- Why have the police made so little progress on the stock pile?
-- Why have the police had so little success in catching guys stealing the guns?

We have the media letting Gun Control Australia asking why people are allowed to own the guns.

--They are questioning the victim of the robbery to give up the right to own things worth stealing?

If we just took the valuable things away from them, then the bad men would not steal them.
Then the busy police would not have to look for them & it would make things so much safer.

2.8 million Firearms, only 1500 or less 0.005 of 1% get stolen each year.
Leading to maybe 1200 making it to the black market.

A black market that has a warehouse containing 260,000 firearms.
and Gun Control Australia's Solution to that is Take Away the Legally Owned 2.8m cause that is easier than finding the 260,000 already available to the criminals

Nobody believes that less guns in the hands of law abiding citizens will mean less guns in the hands of criminals. Not the Police, not the Crime Stat Boffins, Not the Politicians, Not even Gun Control Australia or the Australian Greens.

If you believe it works go have a look a the UK.

Hand guns are illegal, and the bad guys have more now than they did before they were banned. You are dreaming.

Stolen Guns feeding Criminals? only 3% of Stolen Guns used in Crime - so says report

Firearm Theft in Australia 2008-2009
(one of the Reports Samantha Lee likes to refer to)


ON THE FIREARMS OWNERS SIDE

1,570 Firearms Stolen
91.0% of Guns Stolen were registered
60.0% where Category A
27.0% of time Ammo was stolen with the gun.
6.0% where Handguns (not hand held guns!!)


ON THE POLICE SIDE

13.0% of Thieves were apprehend
14.0% of Firearms Stolen were recovered by police (that is 220 of 1,570)
 55% of the time the Theft was part of general break enter & steal.

ON THE CRIME SIDE

3.0% (ie 47) of the 1,570 Firearms Stolen where later used in Crime/found in possession of some one charged with a criminal offense.

1 case of manslaughter.
2 cases of dangerous conduct
2 cases of in possession of a drug dealer
1 case of found in possession of outlaw bike gang member


SO WHAT?

Gun Control people point to 1500 guns stolen and cry horror and mayhem.

I read a report that says Police are lucky find 1 in 10 of the criminals who stole the guns.

I read a report that says Police are lucky to recover 1 in 10 of the stolen items.

I read a report that says, even then, less than 50 of the stolen guns end up used in a crime.

This level of theft is also less than half the level of thefts in the previous decade.


Where is media focus? not on Police Failure, but on #LAFO??? What the?
2007-2008 Report
http://www.aic.gov.au/documents/D/4/E/%7BD4E4005C-13BC-4664-B53F-5F78589C057F%7Dmr16.pdf


2002 Report
http://aic.gov.au/documents/b/9/7/%7Bb97bf8dc-96f3-4f4c-abca-12cd608dc2dd%7Dti230.pdf