Showing posts with label Bureau of Crime Statistics & Research. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bureau of Crime Statistics & Research. Show all posts

Wednesday, 7 May 2014

Who do you believe? Why do you believe them? (The National Firearms Agreement)

Its a good question to ask yourself in any debate.

Who do you believe?

Equally important is to ask 

Why do you believe them?


I would hope that you would believe the people you believe because they have proven themselves accurate, reliable and truthful in the past.

For your consideration I share the following:

National Firearms Agreement 1996

Claim: NFA caused dramatic decline in homicide









Till Next Time.

Thursday, 10 October 2013

Shootings in NSW actually increased after 1996 Gun Laws came in & stayed above 1996 levels for a number of years.

Graph of all recorded incidents of Shootings in NSW 1990-2012 - interesting it goes up after 1996.

October 8, 2013 at 2:45pm
SOURCE http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/agdbasev7wr/bocsar/documents/pdf/bb85.pdf

Is there an increase in shootings?
Much of the discussion around shootings relates to whether the problem is increasing or whether we are seeing a ‘record’ number of shootings. Figures 1 to 4 below show the monthly number of incidents recorded from January 1995 to December 2012.

Figure 1 shows the total number of non-fatal shooting incidents in each category combined (shoot with intent, discharge firearm into premises and unlawfully discharge firearm). The shaded line is the actual number of recorded incidents. The solid line shows the average number of incidents in the five months around the reference month – the moving average. The moving average in




CONCLUSION - NO Not really, there is no statistical up or down trend in shootings.

(Just goes to show the Headline can be very misleading!! )



MAP OF INTEREST

Monday, 7 October 2013

Crime Stats for NSW - June 2013 - Assaults 62,500, Sexual Assaults 10,600, Break & Enter 38,600 - But Media focus is on Guns?

Crime Stats for NSW - June 2013 - Assaults 62,500, Sexual Assaults 10,600, Break & Enter 38,600 - But Media focus is on Guns?

October 8, 2013 at 2:16pm
Update on the NSW Crime States from BOCSAR

http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/bocsar/mr_rcs_jun13.html

Just so you have some sense of what the real risk to you and your family is here are June Qtr Crime Stats for NSW.


Domestic Violence Assaults        27,932
Non Domestic Violence Assaults 34,622
Sexual Assault                            4,546
Indecent Assault                         6,084
Robbery with out firearm             4,042
Robbery with firearm                      277
Break & enter(dwelling)              38,669
Murder                                            73
Attempted Murder                            30
Manslaughter                                     2

I don't just make these numbers up:


You can drill down much further and see by your region and suburb




5 year Trend

Crime is mostly stable or trending down over 2 & 5 years.
Since the introduction of the Ammo Bill - NOTHING changed in relation to Robbery with a Firearm or Drive By Shootings.



Quick Reminder about a Factual correction issued by BOCSAR

Shootings in Public Places
Release date: 6 March 2013 The claim by the Prime Minister that shooting offences in public places in NSW have soared over the last 15 years is incorrect, according to the head of the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research.
The claim was reportedly made by the Prime Minister last Sunday when announcing various measures to tackle organised crime in NSW and other States.
According to the Director of the Bureau, the total number of non-fatal shooting offences in NSW peaked at a six-month average of over 40 incidents a month in November 2001 and then began to fall.
By December last year the six-monthly average number of non-fatal shooting incidents had dropped to around 25 a month.REF:http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/bocsar/mr_20130306.html

Wednesday, 4 September 2013

Is the Legal Gun Market Fueling the illegal gun market? Samatha Lee says Yes, but Research is not really that conclusive.

''Both the Australian Institute of Criminology and the Australian Crime Commission have stated that there is very little evidence to prove that guns are coming in illegally across the border,'' Ms Lee said. ''The legal gun market is fuelling the illegal gun market.''

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/suburban-shootings-tied-to-rise-in-handgun-thefts-20130727-2qr8k.html


REALLY? is that what the Australian Institute of Criminology said?:

As usual dig a little and the Absolute Statements of some are based on nuanced conclusions and statements by the actually researchers.

First - Australian Crime Commission rely heavily on the Instituted of Criminology's research and reading the ACC papers they all point back to AIC so its not two independent sources agreeing on a fact, its one report being commented on by two people.


Here is what I can FIND from the Australian Institute of Criminology:

Sources and conduits

Illegal importation, theft, illicit manufacture (albeit small), the activities of some corrupt dealers, and legacy legislative and procedural loopholes all represent recognised methods by which firearms, firearm parts and ammunition have been or currently are trafficked into or within Australia (ACC 2011, 2009, 2008; Kerlatec 2007; Mouzos 1999; Qld CMC 2004).

Illegal Importation

"In the same period (2010-2011), ACBPS recorded the detection of 5,922 undeclared firearms/airguns, parts and accessories,"

"The servicing of the current illicit market through illegal imports is not an unproven channel but may not be as important a trafficking route as some commentators expect or assert (eg see ABC 2011) and despite more recent high-profile cases (eg see AAP & Davies 2012). This may be because the process of illegal importation is possibly perceived as a less reliable option for firearm acquisition due to increased surveillance from the ACBPS, in combination with police agencies, and thus a greater chance of detection (Project stakeholders personal communication 28 November 2011; 7 December 2011)."

THEFT

Firearms from just 12–14 percent of reported theft incidents between 2004–05 and 2008–09 were recovered by police in the 12 months following the report of the theft (Borzycki & Mouzos 2007; Bricknell 2011, 2009, 2008a; Bricknell & Mouzos 2007), indicating a sizeable, annual contribution of stolen firearms to the illicit market.

I have commented on that in another note that adding 0.5% to the Stock of existing Grey/Illegal Firearms is hardly fueling a stock pile.

SO the RESEARCH says

 - Illegal Imports are a source, but might not be as large as some assert.
 - Police failure to recover stolen guns is suggests that stolen guns are a "sizable" contribution.

We know 1,000 guns a year stolen and not recovered.
We know that the Police/Customs have uncovered criminals engaged in illegal importation of hand guns
We know that the Police have uncovered illicit firearms manufactures supplying criminal gangs.

We don't know how many guns are imported illegally (as parts/in full)
We don't know what the stock pile of illegal guns is (but the only published guess is 260,000+)

The researchers think stolen guns represent a sizable contribution to the stock pile of illegal guns.
The researchers don't quantify what the they mean by "sizable". (Sizable means Fairly Large)
The researchers did chose "sizable" when terms like  'most', 'majority', 'predominant','principal' might have been used if they thought them appropriate.
The researchers did NOT say that their was "very little evidence" that guns were coming in illegally.
In fact the researchers list all the reports of  illegal imports that appeared in the media.
They did not say "little evidence" they said, they thought the role of illegal imports might not be as great as people believed base on media reports.




REF: AIC Report
http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/current%20series/rpp/100-120/rpp116/07_characteristics.html

Tuesday, 3 September 2013

Why are we beating up LAFO about theft of 1000 guns a year when there are 260, 000 Illegal Firearms in Circulation & Police recover 14% of Stolen Guns?

Aust Institute of Criminology says that of the 1500 firearms a year stolen the police recover around 14%.

Lets assume that the 14% recovered is only from the 1200 or so Long Arms stolen and that they never recover any of the pistols.

That means each year 1100 long arms are added to the 250,000 illegal long arms guns the Aust Crime Commission Says are already out there. That is less than 0.5% of the existing stock pile.

In the case of hand guns the 90 a year that is being added to the Crime Commissions 10,000 estimate represents 1% of the existing stock pile.

I dont know about you, but when I see a 0.5% increase & 1% increase in anything, I do not think of adjectives like fueling the market.

If this is the major source of guns into the illegal market, the market must be pretty small or a very mature market in economic/business terms.

If the Institute of Criminology figure of only 3% (47) of stolen firearms end up being used in a crime.

It is no wonder that the boys have turned to Aust Post and Importing of parts to make guns (also noted by Institutes as a source of illegal guns).

I know the cry "But one gun in the hand of a criminal is one too many" will go up.

I agree that a gun in the hands of a criminal is a gun in the wrong hands.

If we were serious about removing guns from the hands criminal, shouldn't we be trying to locate the 260,000 guns the Crime Commission believes are out there already?

Shouldn"t we be putting the acid on the police to find out WHY they only recover 14% of the guns stolen each year?

There are only 600 or so thefts per year.
That means they solve 84 of 600 Thefts involving theft of a firearm.

But instead of asking
-- Why have the police made so little progress on the stock pile?
-- Why have the police had so little success in catching guys stealing the guns?

We have the media letting Gun Control Australia asking why people are allowed to own the guns.

--They are questioning the victim of the robbery to give up the right to own things worth stealing?

If we just took the valuable things away from them, then the bad men would not steal them.
Then the busy police would not have to look for them & it would make things so much safer.

2.8 million Firearms, only 1500 or less 0.005 of 1% get stolen each year.
Leading to maybe 1200 making it to the black market.

A black market that has a warehouse containing 260,000 firearms.
and Gun Control Australia's Solution to that is Take Away the Legally Owned 2.8m cause that is easier than finding the 260,000 already available to the criminals

Nobody believes that less guns in the hands of law abiding citizens will mean less guns in the hands of criminals. Not the Police, not the Crime Stat Boffins, Not the Politicians, Not even Gun Control Australia or the Australian Greens.

If you believe it works go have a look a the UK.

Hand guns are illegal, and the bad guys have more now than they did before they were banned. You are dreaming.

Sunday, 1 September 2013

Stolen Guns feeding Criminals? only 3% of Stolen Guns used in Crime - so says report

Firearm Theft in Australia 2008-2009
(one of the Reports Samantha Lee likes to refer to)


ON THE FIREARMS OWNERS SIDE

1,570 Firearms Stolen
91.0% of Guns Stolen were registered
60.0% where Category A
27.0% of time Ammo was stolen with the gun.
6.0% where Handguns (not hand held guns!!)


ON THE POLICE SIDE

13.0% of Thieves were apprehend
14.0% of Firearms Stolen were recovered by police (that is 220 of 1,570)
 55% of the time the Theft was part of general break enter & steal.

ON THE CRIME SIDE

3.0% (ie 47) of the 1,570 Firearms Stolen where later used in Crime/found in possession of some one charged with a criminal offense.

1 case of manslaughter.
2 cases of dangerous conduct
2 cases of in possession of a drug dealer
1 case of found in possession of outlaw bike gang member


SO WHAT?

Gun Control people point to 1500 guns stolen and cry horror and mayhem.

I read a report that says Police are lucky find 1 in 10 of the criminals who stole the guns.

I read a report that says Police are lucky to recover 1 in 10 of the stolen items.

I read a report that says, even then, less than 50 of the stolen guns end up used in a crime.

This level of theft is also less than half the level of thefts in the previous decade.


Where is media focus? not on Police Failure, but on #LAFO??? What the?
2007-2008 Report
http://www.aic.gov.au/documents/D/4/E/%7BD4E4005C-13BC-4664-B53F-5F78589C057F%7Dmr16.pdf


2002 Report
http://aic.gov.au/documents/b/9/7/%7Bb97bf8dc-96f3-4f4c-abca-12cd608dc2dd%7Dti230.pdf

Friday, 30 August 2013

Irrational Fears, Tens of Thousands are Robbed Raped & Bashed each year & you're afraid of being shot in a drive by? WTF!


That is right, tens of thousands of lives are damaged by robbery, rape and physical violence every year.

Homes, Families, Husbands, Wives & Kids, Grand Parents, Friends all suffer when a violent crime is visited upon a loved one.

In the media there is an extraordinary amount of fear being propagated about drive by shootings & gun culture.

It seems that the "We Hate Guns Lobby" has brain washed the media into thinking that GUNS are the great scourge of our city and our society.

Well the NSW Police Media Release Archives, the Australian Institute of Criminology & NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research tell a very different story.

The Crime Statistics (See graphic) tell us that Robbery, Rape & Assault are much more prevalent than Murder.

Infact the graph below has to note that Murder & Kidnapping is so low they can not put it on the chart with Robbery Rape and Assault.





Using the data on the chart you can work out that

  • 168,000+ people will be assaulted this year (800 per 100,000)

  • 21,000+ people will be robbed (100 per 100,000)

  • 21,000 people will be sexually assaulted (100 per 100,000)
In the case of sexual assault the following chart is perhaps even more disturbing.
Thats right, 1500-1600 sexual assaults every month and it is trending UP


All of those "NON GUN" Crimes on the first chart are  REAL Crimes with REAL victims.

All of these have REAL & Terrible impacts on the victims and the families of the Victim.

All of these a massively more likely to impact on you or one of your loved ones.

SO while YOU ARE terrified of "US GUN Culture" & being shot in a "Drive By".
You are missing the real threat to your personal safety and security.

Criminals are stealing from and assaulting innocent people like YOU in their thousands.

When they do a drive by they are shooting each other.

And if you do come face to face with a murderer its highly unlikely they will have gun.
Your more likely to face a knife or a blunt instrument.




YOU are being feed a bunch of bulldust about the danger to YOU from guns owned by Criminals.

BUT WORSE you are being told that the Guy/Girl next door who is a licenced firearms owner is as dangerous to you as the Drug Gang Boys. That is total BS

The Research from
  • Australian Institute of Criminology to concluded both in 2000 & 2006 that Licenced Gun Owners are the least likely people to be involved in murder! (& noted this was consistant with international findings)
  • Harvard Journal of Law and Public Policy published a review international data on firearm ownership and crime and came to similar conclusions. & that this finding was consistent with international research on lawful gun owners around the world.
YOUR BEING FEED BULLDUST!!



& Just in case you want to talk "Accidental Shootings"   Accidental Shootings run at less than than 20 a year.




All this information has been available for main stream media.
All this information has been shared with the main stream media.
All this information has been IGNORED by the main stream media.

YOUR GETTING CONNED.


MY REFERENCES:

The Report: Criminal use of handguns in Australia

http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/current%20series/tandi/361-380/tandi361/view%20paper.html

(my notes on the above: https://www.facebook.com/notes/aguy-inaus/update-so-how-many-licenced-firearms-owners-have-comitted-homicide-with-a-gun-th/183127978532914)

The Licensing and Registration Status of Firearms Used in Homicide
http://www.aic.gov.au/documents/6/2/A/%7B62AD9B59-92FB-43A1-8848-F1EFA8042F98%7Dti151.pdf
(my notes on the above: https://www.facebook.com/notes/aguy-inaus/so-how-many-licenced-firearms-owners-have-comitted-homicide-with-a-gun-they-own-/183042671874778)


Table 1.1 Underlying cause of death, All causes, Australia, 2011

https://www.facebook.com/notes/aguy-inaus/table-11-underlying-cause-of-death-all-causes-australia-2011/169249996587379

Research says - no correlation between private Guns and Crime

https://www.facebook.com/notes/aguy-inaus/research-says-no-correlation-between-private-guns-and-crime/160065254172520

DO ORDINARY PEOPLE MURDER? (from Harvard Journal of Law and Public Policy)

https://www.facebook.com/notes/aguy-inaus/iii-do-ordinary-people-murder-from-harvard-journal-of-law-and-public-policy/160069814172064

NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics & Research
http://crimetool.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/bocsar/
http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/lawlink/bocsar/ll_bocsar.nsf/pages/bocsar_onlinequeries
http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/lawlink/bocsar/ll_bocsar.nsf/pages/bocsar_crime_stats_archived

NSW POLICE MEDIA RELEASES
http://www.police.nsw.gov.au/news/media_release_archives

Wednesday, 28 August 2013

Research says - no correlation between private Guns and Crime


First the authors do not imply a correlation (negative or positive) they establish from the review of research that a correlation (negative) does exist. The fact that a negative correlation exists, even if it is small actually does inform debate & is significant because:

Gun Grabbers/Gun Ban Types are constantly claiming that Less Privately Owned Guns = Less Crime.

This study, which is a review of the research done on the topic says yet again that the studies conducted show time and time again that no such correlation exists. This is very significant. Why? because the foundational argument they put forward which seems "reasonable" is in fact totally unsupported by evidence. The evidence in fact ranges from No Correlation between increased Gun Ownership & Rates of Crime to a Negative Correlation. Ie More Guns either make no difference or the cause a reduction in crime. This is the result of the research time and time again. This particular study looks at studies as far back as 1991.

http://www.law.harvard.edu/students/orgs/jlpp/Vol30_No2_KatesMauseronline.pdf
2007 Paper.
"The same pattern appears when comparisons of violence to gun ownership are made within nations. Indeed, “data on firearms ownership by constabulary area in England,” like data
from the United States, show “a negative correlation,”10 that is, “where firearms are most dense violent crime rates are lowest, and where guns are least dense violent crime rates are highest.” 11 Many different data sets from various kinds of sources are summarized as follows by the leading text: [T]here is no consistent significant positive association between
gun ownership levels and violence rates: across (1) time within the United States, (2) U.S. cities, (3) counties within Illinois, (4) country‐sized areas like England, U.S.
states, (5) regions of the United States, (6) nations, or (7) population subgroups . . . .12"

As the Harvard review concludes:
Nevertheless, the burden of proof rests on the proponents of the more guns equal more death and fewer guns equal less death mantra, especially since they argue public policy ought to be based on that mantra.149 To bear that burden would at the very least require showing that a large number of nations with more guns have more death and that nations that have imposed
stringent gun controls have achieved substantial reductions in criminal violence (or suicide). But those correlations are not observed when a large number of nations are compared across the world.

This study came to basically the same conclusion as a similar study from 10yrs earlier referenced in the paper. In that paper the author noted:
If you are surprised by [our] finding[s], so [are we]. [We] did not begin this research with any intent to “exonerate” handguns, but there it is—a negative finding, to be sure, but a negative
finding is nevertheless a positive contribution. It directs us where not to aim public health resources.15



Some other views from more recent data:
MURDER: positive correlation only if USA is included.
http://www.psmag.com/culture/the-correlation-between-gun-ownership-and-homicide-rate-55467/
(NB that this includes some commentary on the fact that in the analysis USA is infact an outlier and so might reasonably be excluded from the analysis, which would significantly change the correlation co-efficient result)

CRIME:
http://www.psmag.com/culture/gun-ownership-neither-increases-nor-decreases-crime-rate-55473/

2004 Study  http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=10881&page=2
" For example, despite a large body of research, the committee found no credible evidence that the passage of right-to-carry laws decreases or increases violent crime, and there is almost no empirical evidence that the more than 80 prevention programs focused on gun-related violence have had any effect on children’s behavior, knowledge, attitudes, or beliefs about firearms.

http://www.factcheck.org/2008/03/violent-crimes-and-handgun-ownership/

http://www.harvard-jlpp.com/archive/#302

Friday, 23 August 2013

So how many Licenced Firearms Owners have comitted homicide with a gun they own? (2000 Research)

The short Answer is:

6 Murders of 117 committed using a firearm where by Licenced Firearms owners.
None of those used a Handgun.

**addendum - I had previously reported 11 of 17 but on reading http://www.popcenter.org/problems/gun_violence/PDFs/Reuter_Mouzos_2003.pdf  it turns out that only 6 where by the Licenced Firarms Owner, 5 were shot with their own gun****

Less than 1 in 4 murders involve a firearm.

" In other words, licensed firearms owners were not responsible for the majority of firearm-related homicides. These findings are consistent with international research."

SOURCE DATA & COMMENTARY

The Licensing and Registration Status of Firearms Used in Homicide

http://www.aic.gov.au/documents/6/2/A/%7B62AD9B59-92FB-43A1-8848-F1EFA8042F98%7Dti151.pdf


Between 1 July 1989 and 30 June 1999, just under 1 in 4 homicide victims were killed with a firearm. Although most homicides in Australia are not committed with a firearm, a number of events have sparked public outcry and have led to significant changes in the regulation of firearms. One such event was the Port Arthur incident
in which 35 people lost their lives to semi-automatic firearms

This paper seeks to examine the licensing and registration status of firearms used to commit homicide.







the following analyses will focus only  on firearm-related homicides committed on or after 1 July 1997 to 30 June 1999.

An analysis of the licensing and registration status of firearms used in homicide between 1 July 1997 and 30 June 1999 reveals that the overwhelming majority of these firearms were not registered and the offenders of homicide
were not licensed firearms owners (Figure 6)

Of the 117 homicide offenders who used firearms to commit homicide, only 11 (9.4%) homicide offenders were licensed firearms owners with registered firearms (Figure 6). In other words, licensed firearms owners were not responsible for the majority of firearm-related homicides. These findings are consistent with international research.

In the few cases where licensed firearms owners used a registered firearm to kill, 80 per cent of the registered firearms used were Category A or B firearms. Not one handgun used in homicide was registered.

http://www.aic.gov.au/documents/6/2/A/%7B62AD9B59-92FB-43A1-8848-F1EFA8042F98%7Dti151.pdf

Its not all our way, these guys then go on th say:

Storage of Firearms One of the main methods of illegal acquisition of firearms by individuals is through theft from
gun dealers, owners, or others (Mouzos 1999). Although this study did not specifically examine whether the firearms used to commit homicide had been stolen from licensed owners.

My challange to this Claim is based on:

- Not one of the hand guns in this 2000 paper were registered - so no guns stolen from LAFO in the period of the study turned up as  murder weapon.

- AIC studies show less than 100 Hand Guns a year are stolen in Australia from #LAFO.
- AIC studies show that only about 50% of the stolen hand guns are Semi Automatics. (that put 50 on the market)
- News reports in past 18 months have noted that a number of Illegal Firearms Importing operations have been busted. With number of firearms in the 100's. {ref to be added}
- The ACC estimated that 10,000 hand guns are already in the illicit market. adding 50 a year is not a major source. (http://www.crimecommission.gov.au/publications/crime-profile-series/illicit-firearms)



http://www.aic.gov.au/media_library/publications/rpp/116/rpp116.pdf

2002 research on Theft
http://aic.gov.au/documents/b/9/7/%7Bb97bf8dc-96f3-4f4c-abca-12cd608dc2dd%7Dti230.pdf


2008-2009

Characteristics of stolen firearms

http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/current%20series/mr/1-20/16/04_characteristics.html




While we have stories of 200+ handguns imported in a 3 month period in NSW.

Wednesday, 21 August 2013

III. DO ORDINARY PEOPLE MURDER?

The short answer is - NO they don't

So says Harvard Journal of Law and Public Policy article.
Some Highlights from this section of the 2007 Harvard Journal of Law and Public Policy

REF: http://www.law.harvard.edu/students/orgs/jlpp/Vol30_No2_KatesMauseronline.pdf

Summary of this section of the paper:

The claim by critics of gun ownership that  "Ordinary Citizens with access to firearms are the most likely source of handgun murder"   "appear to rest on no evidence and actually contradict facts that have so uniformly been established by homicide studies dating back to the 1890s"

The only kind of evidence cited to support the myth that most murderers are ordinary people is that many murders arise from arguments or occur in homes and between acquaintances.

These bare facts are only relevant if one assumes that criminals do not have acquaintances or homes or arguments. Of the many studies belying this, the broadest analyzed a year’s national data on gun murders occurring in homes and between acquaintances. It found “the most common victim/offender relationship” was “where both parties . . . knew one another because of prior illegal transactions.


III. DO ORDINARY PEOPLE MURDER?

Some highlights:

The “more guns equal more death” mantra seems plausible only when viewed through the rubric that murders mostly involve ordinary people who kill because they have access to a firearm when they get angry.

If this were true, murder might well increase where people have ready access to firearms, but the available data provides no such correlation.

Nations and areas with more guns per capita do not have higher murder rates than those with fewer guns per capita.

Nevertheless, critics of gun ownership often argue that a
-->“gun in the closet to protect against burglars will most likely be used to shoot a spouse in a moment of rage . -->"The problem is you and me—law‐abiding folks;
-->“most gun‐related homicides . . . are the result of impulsive actions taken by individuals who have little or no criminal background or who are known to the victims;”
-->" that “the majority of firearm homicide[s occur] . . . not as the result of criminal activity, but because of arguments between people who know each other; that each year there are thousands of gun murders “by law‐abiding citizens who might have stayed law‐abiding if they had not possessed firearms."

These comments appear to rest on no evidence and actually contradict facts that have so uniformly been established by homicide studies dating back to the 1890s

Insofar as studies focus on perpetrators, they show that neither a majority, nor many, nor virtually any murderers are ordinary “law‐abiding citizens.”

Rather, almost all murderers are extremely aberrant individuals with life histories of violence, psychopathology, substance abuse, and other dangerous behaviors. “The vast majority of persons involved in lifethreatening violence have a long criminal record with many prior contacts with the justice system.”

 “Thus homicide—[whether] of a stranger or [of] someone known to the offender—‘is usually part of a pattern of violence, engaged in by people who are known . . . as violence prone.’”

Though only 15% of Americans over the age of 15 have arrest records, approximately 90 percent of “adult murderers have adult records, with an average adult criminal career [involving crimes committed as an adult rather than a child] of six or more years, including four major adult felony arrests.” These  national statistics dovetail with data from local nineteenth and twentieth century studies.

 For example:
-->victims as well as offenders [in 1950s and 1960s Philadelphia murders] . . . tended to be people with prior police records, usually for violent crimes such as assault.”

 -->“The great majority of both perpetrators and victims of [1970s Harlem] assaults and murders had previous [adult] arrests, probably over 80% or more.”

-->Boston police and probation officers in the 1990s agreed that of those juvenile‐perpetrated murders where all the facts were known, virtually all were committed by gang members though the killing was not necessarily gang related.

-->80% of 1997 Atlanta murder arrestees had at least one earlier drug offense with 70% having 3 or more prior drug offenses

-->New York Times study of the 1,662 murders committed in that city in the years 2003–2005 found that “[m]ore than 90 percent of the killers had criminal records.

That murderers are not ordinary, law‐abiding responsible adults is further documented in other sources. Psychological studies of juvenile murderers variously find that at least 80%, if not all, are psychotic or have psychotic symptoms.


My point with this is: A long history of research shows that guns in the possession of people with no criminal history has never-never been demonstrated to pose a threat to the general public or the home in which the gun owner lives. It may or may not help reduced crime, but is sure as hell does not increase violent crime in general, or murder specifically.

This 2007 paper surveys a lot of research. It reaches back to cover research and data from the 1890's to 2000's. That's a survey covering over 100 years of available data.
It covers countries that go from complete open slather to strict prohibition.
It is not some puff piece by pro gun guys. It comes to conclusions that the authors may not even agree with philosophically.

As the authors state, the burden of proof around "Guns in the hands of ordinary people represent a clear danger to society" is on the Gun Grabbers, and so far 100yrs of data is against them.