''Both
the Australian Institute of Criminology and the Australian Crime
Commission have stated that there is very little evidence to prove that
guns are coming in illegally across the border,'' Ms Lee said. ''The
legal gun market is fuelling the illegal gun market.''
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/suburban-shootings-tied-to-rise-in-handgun-thefts-20130727-2qr8k.html
REALLY? is that what the Australian Institute of Criminology said?:
As
usual dig a little and the Absolute Statements of some are based on
nuanced conclusions and statements by the actually researchers.
First
- Australian Crime Commission rely heavily on the Instituted of
Criminology's research and reading the ACC papers they all point back to
AIC so its not two independent sources agreeing on a fact, its one
report being commented on by two people.
Here is what I can FIND from the Australian Institute of Criminology:
Sources and conduits
Illegal
importation, theft, illicit manufacture (albeit small), the activities
of some corrupt dealers, and legacy legislative and procedural loopholes
all represent recognised methods by which firearms, firearm parts and
ammunition have been or currently are trafficked into or within
Australia (ACC 2011, 2009, 2008; Kerlatec 2007; Mouzos 1999; Qld CMC
2004).
Illegal Importation
"In the same period (2010-2011), ACBPS recorded the detection of 5,922 undeclared firearms/airguns, parts and accessories,"
"The servicing of the current illicit market through illegal imports is
not an unproven channel but
may not be as important a trafficking route as some commentators expect or assert
(eg see ABC 2011) and despite more recent high-profile cases (eg see
AAP & Davies 2012). This may be because the process of illegal
importation is possibly perceived as a less reliable option for firearm
acquisition due to increased surveillance from the ACBPS, in combination
with police agencies, and thus a greater chance of detection (Project
stakeholders personal communication 28 November 2011; 7 December 2011)."
THEFT
Firearms
from just 12–14 percent of reported theft incidents between 2004–05 and
2008–09 were recovered by police in the 12 months following the report
of the theft (Borzycki & Mouzos 2007; Bricknell 2011, 2009, 2008a;
Bricknell & Mouzos 2007),
indicating a sizeable, annual contribution of stolen firearms to the illicit market.
I
have commented on that in another note that adding 0.5% to the Stock of
existing Grey/Illegal Firearms is hardly fueling a stock pile.
SO the RESEARCH says
- Illegal Imports are a source, but might not be as large as some assert.
- Police failure to recover stolen guns is suggests that stolen guns are a "sizable" contribution.
We know 1,000 guns a year stolen and not recovered.
We know that the Police/Customs have uncovered criminals engaged in illegal importation of hand guns
We know that the Police have uncovered illicit firearms manufactures supplying criminal gangs.
We don't know how many guns are imported illegally (as parts/in full)
We don't know what the stock pile of illegal guns is (but the only published guess is 260,000+)
The researchers think stolen guns represent a sizable contribution to the stock pile of illegal guns.
The researchers don't quantify what the they mean by "sizable". (Sizable means Fairly Large)
The researchers did chose "sizable" when terms like 'most', 'majority', 'predominant','principal' might have been used if they thought them appropriate.
The researchers did NOT say that their was "very little evidence" that guns were coming in illegally.
In fact the researchers list all the reports of illegal imports that appeared in the media.
They did not say "little evidence" they said, they thought the role of illegal imports might not be as great as people believed base on media reports.
REF: AIC Report
http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/current%20series/rpp/100-120/rpp116/07_characteristics.html
