Is the Legal Gun Market Fueling the illegal gun market? Samatha Lee says Yes, but Research is not really that conclusive.

''Both the Australian Institute of Criminology and the Australian Crime Commission have stated that there is very little evidence to prove that guns are coming in illegally across the border,'' Ms Lee said. ''The legal gun market is fuelling the illegal gun market.''

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/suburban-shootings-tied-to-rise-in-handgun-thefts-20130727-2qr8k.html


REALLY? is that what the Australian Institute of Criminology said?:

As usual dig a little and the Absolute Statements of some are based on nuanced conclusions and statements by the actually researchers.

First - Australian Crime Commission rely heavily on the Instituted of Criminology's research and reading the ACC papers they all point back to AIC so its not two independent sources agreeing on a fact, its one report being commented on by two people.


Here is what I can FIND from the Australian Institute of Criminology:

Sources and conduits

Illegal importation, theft, illicit manufacture (albeit small), the activities of some corrupt dealers, and legacy legislative and procedural loopholes all represent recognised methods by which firearms, firearm parts and ammunition have been or currently are trafficked into or within Australia (ACC 2011, 2009, 2008; Kerlatec 2007; Mouzos 1999; Qld CMC 2004).

Illegal Importation

"In the same period (2010-2011), ACBPS recorded the detection of 5,922 undeclared firearms/airguns, parts and accessories,"

"The servicing of the current illicit market through illegal imports is not an unproven channel but may not be as important a trafficking route as some commentators expect or assert (eg see ABC 2011) and despite more recent high-profile cases (eg see AAP & Davies 2012). This may be because the process of illegal importation is possibly perceived as a less reliable option for firearm acquisition due to increased surveillance from the ACBPS, in combination with police agencies, and thus a greater chance of detection (Project stakeholders personal communication 28 November 2011; 7 December 2011)."

THEFT

Firearms from just 12–14 percent of reported theft incidents between 2004–05 and 2008–09 were recovered by police in the 12 months following the report of the theft (Borzycki & Mouzos 2007; Bricknell 2011, 2009, 2008a; Bricknell & Mouzos 2007), indicating a sizeable, annual contribution of stolen firearms to the illicit market.

I have commented on that in another note that adding 0.5% to the Stock of existing Grey/Illegal Firearms is hardly fueling a stock pile.

SO the RESEARCH says

 - Illegal Imports are a source, but might not be as large as some assert.
 - Police failure to recover stolen guns is suggests that stolen guns are a "sizable" contribution.

We know 1,000 guns a year stolen and not recovered.
We know that the Police/Customs have uncovered criminals engaged in illegal importation of hand guns
We know that the Police have uncovered illicit firearms manufactures supplying criminal gangs.

We don't know how many guns are imported illegally (as parts/in full)
We don't know what the stock pile of illegal guns is (but the only published guess is 260,000+)

The researchers think stolen guns represent a sizable contribution to the stock pile of illegal guns.
The researchers don't quantify what the they mean by "sizable". (Sizable means Fairly Large)
The researchers did chose "sizable" when terms like  'most', 'majority', 'predominant','principal' might have been used if they thought them appropriate.
The researchers did NOT say that their was "very little evidence" that guns were coming in illegally.
In fact the researchers list all the reports of  illegal imports that appeared in the media.
They did not say "little evidence" they said, they thought the role of illegal imports might not be as great as people believed base on media reports.




REF: AIC Report
http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/current%20series/rpp/100-120/rpp116/07_characteristics.html