Friday, 18 October 2013

Yanga - From Farm to National Park - or How to strip Income from regional NSW for conservation.


YANGA

http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/NationalParks/parkHome.aspx?id=N1137
http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/NationalParks/parkHome.aspx?id=N1137


Prior to it becoming a national park it was a working farm.
Farm income was around $2.49 million with expenditure of $2.33million & employed 14 people..



The park was purchased in 2005 for $25.5 million Dollars
It appear to have direct annual costs of $1.2 million it was unclear if this was including the wages for 8 Staff.


It has 19,000 visitors per year based on data collected from traffic counters.


The current visitor numbers are less than 40% of the projected 50,000 visitors a year.


So how involved is the local community? Well over the past 7 years the number of volunteers has grown to 10.


Impact on Region:
1. Local Councils have lost over $500,000 in Rates over the 7 years since the Park was created
2. Regional Business revenues have declined by over $8.3 million over the 7 years since the Park was created


A quote from local Council Member reported in a recent press article:

"People can't comprehend they (the NSW Government) don't have enough money to build a hospital, but they've got enough to buy a property that we don't see the benefits in tourism from."



Yanga is only one of the purchases in the Riverina.
There are some purchases, like Darcoola has virtually no visitors since it was opened and others that have not yet open.


List of Purchases
List of Purchases

If Yanga is indicative of the impact of converting private land to National Park, you have to say that the arrival of national park in your region is going to be an economic disaster.

In the case of Yanga, $25.5m spend to purchase plus $1.2m a year in running cost is all for the benefit of just 19,000 people a year.


Most of this information has been taken from the following submission to the NSW Parliment Enquiry into Public Lands Management, with some further information/comment from the article "No Love for NSW National Parks"


Link to Submissionhttp://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/prod/parlment/committee.nsf/0/f87e068690f56fd2ca257a7800040573/$FILE/0332%20NSW%20Government.pdf

Link to Article
http://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/article/2012/03/12/452561_national-news.html










 

Some Helpful Scale reference:

 

Thursday, 17 October 2013

Global Warming might contribute to Bushfires, but its FUEL on the Ground we can impact NOW

UPDATE:: http://bushfirefront.com.au/impacts-of-bushfires/occasional-papers
Two myths have emerged about climate change and bushfire management and are beginning to circulate in the media and to be adopted as fact by some scientists:
1.     Because of global warming, Australia will be increasingly subject to uncontrollable holocaust-like “megafires”.
 2.     Fuel reduction by prescribed burning must cease because it releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, thus exacerbating global warming and the occurrence of megafires.
Both statements are incorrect. However they represent the sort of plausible-sounding assertions which, if repeated often enough, can take on a life of their own and lead eventually to damaging policy change.




Maybe the weather is getting hotter and dryier because of Global Warming.
Maybe we can do something about that. Maybe we should.
This is an issue that requires local, national & international action.

The challange that was put up on Twitter was - SHOW ME that the GREEN have opposed back burning.
Well as always, the GREEN Party is careful to avoid such out right claims.
But what I can show you is a history of people complaining about environmental activists interfering in the management of fuel load in National Parks & other areas.

In  a nutshell Two Views

THE GREEN VIEW
The extent of green opposition to hazard reduction was clear in the days following the Canberra tragedy. The NSW Nature Conservation Council on January 21 denounced the practice as "futile" and a "knee-jerk reaction". The NCC chairman, Rob Pallin, said: "People who claim that hazard reduction burning is a cure- all for bushfire risk are either fooling themselves or deliberately trying to fool the public."


THE CSIRO VIEW
The CSIRO's principal research scientist, Phil Cheney, Australia's foremost bushfire researcher, also blames the intensity of the fires on the fact that, "for the last 30 years there has been a continuing decline in operational prescribed burning". He said yesterday the January fires were "a truly historic event [producing] probably the most extreme, widespread and continuously burnt area in living history".

And the reason history was made? "Really the only thing that has changed is burning practices." The gradual removal of grazing stock from mountain areas had also allowed undergrowth to build up, he said.

The above views came from 2003 http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/05/07/1052280321826.html


THE FOLLOWING CAME FROM  Hairyman Bushcraft  - THANKS MATE!


2009 Green ideas must take blame for deaths
 Scott Gentle, the Victorian manager of Timber Communities Australia
Gentle complained of obstruction from green local government authorities of any type of fire mitigation strategies. He told of green interference at Kinglake - at the epicentre of Saturday's disaster, where at least 147 people died - during a smaller fire there in 2007.

 Dr Phil Cheney, the former head of the CSIRO's bushfire research unit and one of the pioneers of prescribed burning, said yesterday if the fire-ravaged Victorian areas had been hazard-reduced, the flames would not have been as intense. 

Goonoo 2007 volunteer firefighters bulldozing a control line were obstructed by National Parks and Wildlife Service employees who had driven from Sydney to stop vegetation being damaged.
 The poor management of national parks and state forests in Victoria is highlighted by the interactive fire map on the website of the Department of Sustainability and Environment. Yesterday it showed that, of 148 fires started since mid-January, 120 started in state forests, national parks, or other public land, and just 21 on private property. 

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/green-ideas-must-take-blame-for-deaths-20090211-84mk.html#ixzz2i20ig38q


2009 You can't see the danger for the trees


So fearful are many Blue Mountains residents at the prospect of a catastrophic bushfire to rival Victoria's February disaster that their MP, Phil Koperberg, has had to call two public meetings next week to address their safety concerns.

 "People used to say 10 tonnes of ground fuel per hectare was excessive," says Don Nott, 66, a Springwood real estate agent, life member of the Winmalee fire brigade and former group captain of the Blue Mountains Rural Fire Service (RFS). "Here we have 30 tonnes per hectare. We're living on a time bomb."

 He says authorities and green groups pay only lip service to allowing local brigades to light controlled fires in the cooler months to burn off ground fuel - a process known as "hazard reduction" or "prescribed burning".

"Over the years the whole process of getting approval has become so bureaucratic and convoluted … with so much paperwork and so many restrictions about when you can light or can't light, it has made it virtually impossible."

At the royal commission into the Black Saturday fires, counsel assisting, Jack Rush, has acknowledged the importance of burning off ground fuel. 

 Whether or not you go along with the green view that global warming played a crucial role in the fire intensity, what we do know is we aren't going to stop global warming before summer. We have control only over ground fuel. 

2007 Firefighters' anger still burning

Two weeks ago, as a bushfire was raging through the Goonoo Community Conservation Area, an angry showdown between Rural Fire Service volunteers and National Parks and Wildlife Service employees threatened to derail firefighting efforts.
The streets are abuzz with the story of how, at the height of the blaze, greenie NPWS workers drove their vehicles in front of a bulldozer driver trying to clear a firebreak in order to stop him damaging any more vegetation.


2005 Burning issue that gave fire chief his political kickstart

 Green ideology - opposed to any human interference with nature, such as systematic hazard-reduction burning - has increasingly obstructed proper bushfire management. 

Bushfire brigade volunteers who once efficiently managed their patch of turf were emasculated. 

http://www.smh.com.au/news/miranda-devine/burning-issue-that-gave-fire-chief-his-political-kickstart/2006/11/05/1162340090516.html


2003 - CSIRO Said Hazard reduction did not prevent fires, but it kept them manageable.

The CSIRO's principal research scientist, Phil Cheney, Australia's foremost bushfire researcher, also blames the intensity of the fires on the fact that, "for the last 30 years there has been a continuing decline in operational prescribed burning". He said yesterday the January fires were "a truly historic event [producing] probably the most extreme, widespread and continuously burnt area in living history".

And the reason history was made? "Really the only thing that has changed is burning practices." The gradual removal of grazing stock from mountain areas had also allowed undergrowth to build up, he said.
The amount of fuel on the ground had a quantifiable effect on the speed and intensity of a fire, combined with weather and slope variables, said Cheney. If ground fuel was kept under control, with regular cool, controlled burns in winter, a fire would usually peter out in a eucalypt forest. Hazard reduction did not prevent fires, but it kept them manageable.




2002 The bushfire disaster inquiry seems intent on hearing only a limited range of views.

 The parliamentary inquiry into the Christmas bushfire disaster is in danger of becoming a farce designed to exclude anyone with a view contrary to the Government's. Submissions blaming inadequate hazard reduction by NSW authorities have been mislaid, committee members remain in the dark and major players in land management, such as State Forests, which advocates prescribed burning, have been ignored.

 One committee member said yesterday that until a forester called him to ask why he had not been asked to appear at the inquiry, he was not even aware that State Forests had submitted a detailed, thick, bound report setting out the scientific case for regular hazard reduction to minimise bushfire devastation. What's more, he has had no say in who the committee has called as witnesses. 

 Price said yesterday he did not expect a submission from Cheney and had not invited one, as federal organisations such as the CSIRO would not be expected to participate in state inquiries.

 WANT SOME REAL SCIENCE:

Managing fire

If we want to reduce fire intensity and make fire suppression safer and easier we need to accept that it is the dry undergrowth and dead leaf, bark and twig litter that provides the fuel for bushfires, and use prescribed fire to reduce fuel loads.

How does prescribed burning reduce fuel loads and fire hazards? CSIRO's Project Vesta studied the characteristics of the behaviour and spread of high-intensity bushfires in dry eucalypt forests under dry summer conditions.
Project Vesta found that reducing fuel loads by prescribed burning reduces the rate of spread, flame height and intensity of a fire, as well as the number and distance of spot fires, by changing the structure of the fuel bed and reducing the total fuel load.


Some Other Reading:

http://www.royalcommission.vic.gov.au/
SPECIFICALLY www.royalcommission.vic.gov.au/getdoc/...6522.../EXP.018.001.0002‎ 
YES
a. Prescribed burning is always effective in reducing fuel loads,  and thus mitigating bushfire risk, for  a minimum of 3--‐5 years following its application to the majority
of eucalypt forest types in Southern Australia.

Wednesday, 16 October 2013

Australian Citizenship: Our Common Bond (A good reminder to All of Us)

The following information was taken from the document all people applying for citizenship are required to study & be tested on.

I think it does a pretty good job (not perfect) of setting out how I would like Australia to be.

Have a read, have a think about where the "ideal" set out here is at odds with reality.

Our democratic beliefs
Parliamentary democracy
Australia’s system of government is a parliamentary democracy. This means that all Australians are involved in how the country is governed. The power of the government comes from the Australian people because Australian citizens regularly vote for people to represent them in parliament. Only parliament has the power to make and change the laws that govern the country.
In a parliamentary democracy, the representatives in parliament must answer to the people, through elections, for the decisions they make.

The rule of law
Australia’s laws are important for all people living in Australia. Australians recognise the value of laws in maintaining a peaceful and orderly society. All Australians have the right to be protected by Australia’s laws.
Everyone must obey Australia’s laws. If they don’t obey the law, they may be arrested by the police and have to go to court.

Respect for all individuals regardless of background
People come to settle in Australia from countries all around the world. Many people have a different cultural heritage with different beliefs and traditions. In our democratic society, we are all free to follow and share these beliefs and traditions as long as they do not break Australian laws.

Compassion for those in need
In Australia, there is a spirit of ‘mateship’. This means we help and receive help from each other in times of need. A mate is often a friend, but can also be a total stranger. A mate might take a meal to an elderly neighbour, drive a friend to a medical appointment or visit someone who is lonely.

Our freedoms
Freedom of speech and freedom of expression
Freedom of speech allows people to say and write what they think and to discuss their ideas with others.
Freedom of expression allows people to express their views through art, film, music and literature.
In Australia, we are free to say and write what we think, privately or publicly, about any topic. However,
we cannot harm others.

We cannot make false allegations, encourage others to break the law or damage another person’s reputation.
Freedom of association
Australians are free to join any legal organisation, such as a political party, trade union, religious, cultural or social group. People can also decide not to join. Australians can gather with others to protest against a government  action or an organisation. However, all protests must be within the law. This means they must be peaceful, and must not injure any person or damage property.

Freedom of religion and secular government
Australia has a Judaeo-Christian heritage, and many Australians describe themselves as Christians. Australia
has public holidays on Christian days such as Good Friday, Easter Sunday and Christmas Day.
However, the government in Australia is secular. This means that there is no official national religion.
People in Australia are free to follow any religion they choose, as long as its practices do not break Australian laws. In addition to Christianity, Buddhism, Islam, Hinduism, Judaism and many other religions are practised freely in Australia.

Australians are also free to not follow a religion. The government treats all citizens equally, whatever their religion or beliefs.

Responsibilities and privileges of Australian citizenship

Responsibilities – what you will give Australia
As an Australian citizen you must:
• obey the law
• vote in federal and state or territory elections,and in a referendum
• defend Australia should the need arise
• serve on a jury if called to do so.

Privileges – what Australia will give you
As an Australian citizen you have the right to:
• vote in federal and state or territory elections, and in a referendum
• apply for work in the Australian Public Service or in the Australian Defence Force
• seek election to parliament
• apply for an Australian passport and re-enter Australia freely
• receive help from an Australian official while overseas
• register children born overseas as Australian citizens by descent.


THE PLEDGE

From this time forward, under God,*
I pledge my loyalty to Australia and its people,
whose democratic beliefs I share,
whose rights and liberties I respect, and
whose laws I will uphold and obey.

* A person may choose whether or not to use the words ‘under God’.

Taken from Australian Citizenship: Our Common Bond 
all the information you need to help you pass the citizenship test.
http://www.citizenship.gov.au/learn/cit_test/test_resource/_pdf/our-common-bond-2013.pdf

For Reference: The Australian Constitution
http://www.peo.gov.au/publications/2012_Australian_Constitution.pdf

Monday, 14 October 2013

ABC Catalyst program on Hunting - Expert might not have read the recent research papers

http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/3852511.htm

ON TV IN SEPTEMBER 2013
Dr Euan Ritchie
As an example, if you kill foxes, cats will increase because foxes actually are very effective control method for cats, and so when you're managing species, you have to actually think of all the species in that system, and you actually have to manage them at the same time, and it's very difficult to do that as a hunter. It's very difficult to go in there and say, 'Let's shoot pigs, foxes, cats, all these species at the same time.'

BUT RESEARCH PUBLISHED IN JULY 2013

http://www.northernstar.com.au/news/feral-cat-goanna-dingo/1957993/

THE culling of dingoes in Australia to protect livestock does not open the way for other predators to take their place, new research found.

The research results have been published in BioMed Central's open access journal Frontiers in Zoology by the Invasive Animals CRC in Australia.

The research found that while culling dingoes and red foxes are temporarily suppressed, feral cats and goannas are not affected.

Invasive Animals CRC and Biosecurity Queensland's Benjamin Allen, who led the study, said the results suggested planning of culls around calving time to save livestock from attacks should not harm other animals in the ecosystem.
Mr Allen said top predators like dingoes were often culled to protect livestock.
It had been suggested this practice could lead to increased numbers of next level predators such as red foxes, feral cats and goannas.

Saturday, 12 October 2013

A brief list of Feral Dog Reports on the North Coast 2008-2013 (DPI has it under control right?)


Camera traps monitor wild dogs in bid to protect koalas

12/07/2013  -http://www.northernstar.com.au/news/wild-dogs-on-camera/1941960/

Family shattered after wild dogs go on killing frenzyhttp://www.northernstar.com.au/news/wild-dogs-on-killing-frenzy/1778704/
5/03/2013
TWO wild dog attacks in three days have all but wiped out an Eatonsville family's flock of sheep.


Wild dogs wipe out farmer's sheep flock

http://www.northernstar.com.au/news/wild-dogs-wipe-out-farmers-sheep-flock/856413/
23/05/2011
“In two nights they killed 48 sheep,” he said.

By the time Mr Mulligan had found a replacement for his old sheep dog it was too late, the flock had been wiped out – some for food, most for sport.

Farm ravaged by wild dogs

http://www.northernstar.com.au/news/dogs-defeat-sheep-breeder-farm-wild-ravage-lismore/824934/
15/04/2011
BOB KERLE has fought tirelessly during the past few years trying to combat the increasing number of wild dogs that ravage his property and animals almost weekly.
But it was a long-running battle he recently and regrettably lost.
Mr Kerle, who lives at Wilsons Creek, used to have 30 to 40 sheep, but is now down to 11 due to wild dog attacks on his stock.

Native wildlife under attack

http://www.northernstar.com.au/news/native-wildlife-under-attack-ballina-pets-domestic/743796/
14/01/2011
BALLINA has taken out the dubious title of the suburb with the highest attacks recorded on wildlife by domestic cats and dogs on the Northern Rivers.
A total of 14 attacks by cats and 11 attacks by dogs occurred in the past year, according to statistics collected by the Wildlife Information, Rescue and Education Service (WIRES).
“These figures only represent those animals reported to WIRES,” Northern Rivers spokeswoman Katy Stewart said.
“They do not include ... the animals which die or go unreported and they do not include feral cats and dogs that are more likely to eat their prey.”

Feral dogs attack again

http://www.northernstar.com.au/news/feral-dogs-attack-again/514465/
22/04/2010
Mr Walbaum said he had only seen the dogs alone, or sometimes in pairs, and assumed they were domestic animals just running around in the scrub for the day.
That changed about three weeks ago when he was taking his three dogs on one of their regular walks through the property.
One of the dogs, Sparky, got a bit ahead of the group and disappeared around a corner. Moments later, Mr Walbaum heard the dog yelping and screaming and his other two dogs raced off after it.
When he rounded the corner, yelling as he ran, Mr Walbaum said he saw the feral pack fleeing into the bush while Sparky was ‘ripped into pieces’.

Feral dog attacks continue

http://www.northernstar.com.au/news/feral-attacks-dog-coast-north-livestock/496822/
27/03/2010
THE killing of livestock by wild dogs continues along the North Coast.
“More (animals) have died, but nothing has changed,” said Katy Stewart, WIRES carer and farmer of The Pocket.
This week, two sheep were killed at a home near the village of Crabbes Creek, and householders were kept awake at night on both sides of The Pocket valley by the howling of packs of dogs.


Feral dogs kill two alpacas

http://www.northernstar.com.au/news/calls-for-hunting-party-after-dogs-kill-two-alpaca/479107/
2/03/2010

TWO alpacas worth about $1500 each have been killed and another three seriously injured in an attack by feral dogs at The Pocket, triggering calls for hunters to be allowed in to track down and kill the dogs.
Farmer and WIRES carer Katy Stewart said the alpacas were mauled overnight between Sunday and yesterday in the latest in a string of attacks on livestock and native animals at Mullumbimby, The Pocket, Middle Pocket and Yelgun.
While rangers for the Livestock Health and Pest Associations have previously said feral dog activity had dropped off around The Pocket, Ms Stewart said it continued unabated.
However, many property owners had ‘given up’ reporting the attacks in frustration over the organisation’s failure to fix the problem.


and even back in  2008 & using Guardian Dog!!

Wild dogs make farmers' lives hell

16/04/2008
http://www.northernstar.com.au/news/wild-dogs-make-farmers-lives-hell/20114/

NORTHERN Rivers farmers are being driven to their wits end by wild dogs carrying out vicious attacks on their stock.

Sue Riley, of Wilsons Creek, has been breeding cashmere goats for 20 years and in the past couple of years got the flock up to a standard that was generating an income.

Since Christmas she has lost about 30 goats.

"Even with my Maremma guard dog and electric fences I am losing goats every week," Ms Riley said.

Thursday, 10 October 2013

Shootings in NSW actually increased after 1996 Gun Laws came in & stayed above 1996 levels for a number of years.

Graph of all recorded incidents of Shootings in NSW 1990-2012 - interesting it goes up after 1996.

October 8, 2013 at 2:45pm
SOURCE http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/agdbasev7wr/bocsar/documents/pdf/bb85.pdf

Is there an increase in shootings?
Much of the discussion around shootings relates to whether the problem is increasing or whether we are seeing a ‘record’ number of shootings. Figures 1 to 4 below show the monthly number of incidents recorded from January 1995 to December 2012.

Figure 1 shows the total number of non-fatal shooting incidents in each category combined (shoot with intent, discharge firearm into premises and unlawfully discharge firearm). The shaded line is the actual number of recorded incidents. The solid line shows the average number of incidents in the five months around the reference month – the moving average. The moving average in




CONCLUSION - NO Not really, there is no statistical up or down trend in shootings.

(Just goes to show the Headline can be very misleading!! )



MAP OF INTEREST

Monday, 7 October 2013

Crime Stats for NSW - June 2013 - Assaults 62,500, Sexual Assaults 10,600, Break & Enter 38,600 - But Media focus is on Guns?

Crime Stats for NSW - June 2013 - Assaults 62,500, Sexual Assaults 10,600, Break & Enter 38,600 - But Media focus is on Guns?

October 8, 2013 at 2:16pm
Update on the NSW Crime States from BOCSAR

http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/bocsar/mr_rcs_jun13.html

Just so you have some sense of what the real risk to you and your family is here are June Qtr Crime Stats for NSW.


Domestic Violence Assaults        27,932
Non Domestic Violence Assaults 34,622
Sexual Assault                            4,546
Indecent Assault                         6,084
Robbery with out firearm             4,042
Robbery with firearm                      277
Break & enter(dwelling)              38,669
Murder                                            73
Attempted Murder                            30
Manslaughter                                     2

I don't just make these numbers up:


You can drill down much further and see by your region and suburb




5 year Trend

Crime is mostly stable or trending down over 2 & 5 years.
Since the introduction of the Ammo Bill - NOTHING changed in relation to Robbery with a Firearm or Drive By Shootings.



Quick Reminder about a Factual correction issued by BOCSAR

Shootings in Public Places
Release date: 6 March 2013 The claim by the Prime Minister that shooting offences in public places in NSW have soared over the last 15 years is incorrect, according to the head of the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research.
The claim was reportedly made by the Prime Minister last Sunday when announcing various measures to tackle organised crime in NSW and other States.
According to the Director of the Bureau, the total number of non-fatal shooting offences in NSW peaked at a six-month average of over 40 incidents a month in November 2001 and then began to fall.
By December last year the six-monthly average number of non-fatal shooting incidents had dropped to around 25 a month.REF:http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/bocsar/mr_20130306.html

Wednesday, 4 September 2013

Is the Legal Gun Market Fueling the illegal gun market? Samatha Lee says Yes, but Research is not really that conclusive.

''Both the Australian Institute of Criminology and the Australian Crime Commission have stated that there is very little evidence to prove that guns are coming in illegally across the border,'' Ms Lee said. ''The legal gun market is fuelling the illegal gun market.''

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/suburban-shootings-tied-to-rise-in-handgun-thefts-20130727-2qr8k.html


REALLY? is that what the Australian Institute of Criminology said?:

As usual dig a little and the Absolute Statements of some are based on nuanced conclusions and statements by the actually researchers.

First - Australian Crime Commission rely heavily on the Instituted of Criminology's research and reading the ACC papers they all point back to AIC so its not two independent sources agreeing on a fact, its one report being commented on by two people.


Here is what I can FIND from the Australian Institute of Criminology:

Sources and conduits

Illegal importation, theft, illicit manufacture (albeit small), the activities of some corrupt dealers, and legacy legislative and procedural loopholes all represent recognised methods by which firearms, firearm parts and ammunition have been or currently are trafficked into or within Australia (ACC 2011, 2009, 2008; Kerlatec 2007; Mouzos 1999; Qld CMC 2004).

Illegal Importation

"In the same period (2010-2011), ACBPS recorded the detection of 5,922 undeclared firearms/airguns, parts and accessories,"

"The servicing of the current illicit market through illegal imports is not an unproven channel but may not be as important a trafficking route as some commentators expect or assert (eg see ABC 2011) and despite more recent high-profile cases (eg see AAP & Davies 2012). This may be because the process of illegal importation is possibly perceived as a less reliable option for firearm acquisition due to increased surveillance from the ACBPS, in combination with police agencies, and thus a greater chance of detection (Project stakeholders personal communication 28 November 2011; 7 December 2011)."

THEFT

Firearms from just 12–14 percent of reported theft incidents between 2004–05 and 2008–09 were recovered by police in the 12 months following the report of the theft (Borzycki & Mouzos 2007; Bricknell 2011, 2009, 2008a; Bricknell & Mouzos 2007), indicating a sizeable, annual contribution of stolen firearms to the illicit market.

I have commented on that in another note that adding 0.5% to the Stock of existing Grey/Illegal Firearms is hardly fueling a stock pile.

SO the RESEARCH says

 - Illegal Imports are a source, but might not be as large as some assert.
 - Police failure to recover stolen guns is suggests that stolen guns are a "sizable" contribution.

We know 1,000 guns a year stolen and not recovered.
We know that the Police/Customs have uncovered criminals engaged in illegal importation of hand guns
We know that the Police have uncovered illicit firearms manufactures supplying criminal gangs.

We don't know how many guns are imported illegally (as parts/in full)
We don't know what the stock pile of illegal guns is (but the only published guess is 260,000+)

The researchers think stolen guns represent a sizable contribution to the stock pile of illegal guns.
The researchers don't quantify what the they mean by "sizable". (Sizable means Fairly Large)
The researchers did chose "sizable" when terms like  'most', 'majority', 'predominant','principal' might have been used if they thought them appropriate.
The researchers did NOT say that their was "very little evidence" that guns were coming in illegally.
In fact the researchers list all the reports of  illegal imports that appeared in the media.
They did not say "little evidence" they said, they thought the role of illegal imports might not be as great as people believed base on media reports.




REF: AIC Report
http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/current%20series/rpp/100-120/rpp116/07_characteristics.html

Tuesday, 3 September 2013

Why are we beating up LAFO about theft of 1000 guns a year when there are 260, 000 Illegal Firearms in Circulation & Police recover 14% of Stolen Guns?

Aust Institute of Criminology says that of the 1500 firearms a year stolen the police recover around 14%.

Lets assume that the 14% recovered is only from the 1200 or so Long Arms stolen and that they never recover any of the pistols.

That means each year 1100 long arms are added to the 250,000 illegal long arms guns the Aust Crime Commission Says are already out there. That is less than 0.5% of the existing stock pile.

In the case of hand guns the 90 a year that is being added to the Crime Commissions 10,000 estimate represents 1% of the existing stock pile.

I dont know about you, but when I see a 0.5% increase & 1% increase in anything, I do not think of adjectives like fueling the market.

If this is the major source of guns into the illegal market, the market must be pretty small or a very mature market in economic/business terms.

If the Institute of Criminology figure of only 3% (47) of stolen firearms end up being used in a crime.

It is no wonder that the boys have turned to Aust Post and Importing of parts to make guns (also noted by Institutes as a source of illegal guns).

I know the cry "But one gun in the hand of a criminal is one too many" will go up.

I agree that a gun in the hands of a criminal is a gun in the wrong hands.

If we were serious about removing guns from the hands criminal, shouldn't we be trying to locate the 260,000 guns the Crime Commission believes are out there already?

Shouldn"t we be putting the acid on the police to find out WHY they only recover 14% of the guns stolen each year?

There are only 600 or so thefts per year.
That means they solve 84 of 600 Thefts involving theft of a firearm.

But instead of asking
-- Why have the police made so little progress on the stock pile?
-- Why have the police had so little success in catching guys stealing the guns?

We have the media letting Gun Control Australia asking why people are allowed to own the guns.

--They are questioning the victim of the robbery to give up the right to own things worth stealing?

If we just took the valuable things away from them, then the bad men would not steal them.
Then the busy police would not have to look for them & it would make things so much safer.

2.8 million Firearms, only 1500 or less 0.005 of 1% get stolen each year.
Leading to maybe 1200 making it to the black market.

A black market that has a warehouse containing 260,000 firearms.
and Gun Control Australia's Solution to that is Take Away the Legally Owned 2.8m cause that is easier than finding the 260,000 already available to the criminals

Nobody believes that less guns in the hands of law abiding citizens will mean less guns in the hands of criminals. Not the Police, not the Crime Stat Boffins, Not the Politicians, Not even Gun Control Australia or the Australian Greens.

If you believe it works go have a look a the UK.

Hand guns are illegal, and the bad guys have more now than they did before they were banned. You are dreaming.

Sunday, 1 September 2013

Stolen Guns feeding Criminals? only 3% of Stolen Guns used in Crime - so says report

Firearm Theft in Australia 2008-2009
(one of the Reports Samantha Lee likes to refer to)


ON THE FIREARMS OWNERS SIDE

1,570 Firearms Stolen
91.0% of Guns Stolen were registered
60.0% where Category A
27.0% of time Ammo was stolen with the gun.
6.0% where Handguns (not hand held guns!!)


ON THE POLICE SIDE

13.0% of Thieves were apprehend
14.0% of Firearms Stolen were recovered by police (that is 220 of 1,570)
 55% of the time the Theft was part of general break enter & steal.

ON THE CRIME SIDE

3.0% (ie 47) of the 1,570 Firearms Stolen where later used in Crime/found in possession of some one charged with a criminal offense.

1 case of manslaughter.
2 cases of dangerous conduct
2 cases of in possession of a drug dealer
1 case of found in possession of outlaw bike gang member


SO WHAT?

Gun Control people point to 1500 guns stolen and cry horror and mayhem.

I read a report that says Police are lucky find 1 in 10 of the criminals who stole the guns.

I read a report that says Police are lucky to recover 1 in 10 of the stolen items.

I read a report that says, even then, less than 50 of the stolen guns end up used in a crime.

This level of theft is also less than half the level of thefts in the previous decade.


Where is media focus? not on Police Failure, but on #LAFO??? What the?
2007-2008 Report
http://www.aic.gov.au/documents/D/4/E/%7BD4E4005C-13BC-4664-B53F-5F78589C057F%7Dmr16.pdf


2002 Report
http://aic.gov.au/documents/b/9/7/%7Bb97bf8dc-96f3-4f4c-abca-12cd608dc2dd%7Dti230.pdf